Three Global 2050 Work/Technology Scenario. Each about 10 pages of rich detail with cause and effect links and decisions:
Scenario 1: It’s Complicated – A Mixed Bag. A business-as-usual trend projection of the increasing acceleration of change with both intelligence and stupidity characterizing decisionmaking. Irregular adoption of advance technology; high unemployment where governments did not create long-range strategies, and mixed success on the use of universal basic income. Giant corporations’ powers have often grown beyond government control, in this government-corporate, virtual-3D, multipolar world of 2050.
Scenario 2: Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair. Governments did not anticipate the impacts of artificial general intelligence and had no strategies in place as unemployment exploded in the 2030s leaving the world of 2050 in political turmoil. Social polarization and political grid-lock in many forms have grown. Global order has deteriorated into a combination of nationstates, mega-corporations, local militias, terrorism, and organized crime.
Scenario 3: If Humans Were Free – the Self-Actualization Economy. Governments did anticipate the impacts of artificial general intelligence, conducted extensive research on how to phase in universal basic income systems, and promoted self-employment. Artists, media moguls, and entertainers helped to foster cultural change from an employment culture to a self-actualization economy.
Key Insights: The big impact of AI is not the artificial narrow intelligence we have today, but artificial general intelligence we could get as early as 2030. STEM education will not be enough to prevent massive unemployment when AGI hits. Before universal basic income we be accepted alternative cash flow projections will be needed. The arts including music, movies, TV will be needed to help the shift from a culture of jobs to a culture of self-employment connecting t markets around the world.