This scenario is based on the recognition that the development of new technologies – although relevant – turns out to be insufficient to resolve the issue of resource scarcity alone. Important behavioral changes are also needed. In the New Welfare scenario, GDP as a measure of growth becomes obsolete and needs to be replaced with ways of measuring progress that are more reflective of natural, human, and social capital. The New Welfare scenario also charts a pathway toward a low-carbon future, with an overall reduction in energy consumption, density, and intensity, and a greatly reduced reliance on fossil fuels. A new, smart electric grid facilitates active demand management and decentralized production of power. Natural gas or even small nuclear plants tackle problems associated with the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Among other likely shifts under this scenario is a re-conceptualization of production, from short-lived to longer-lasting goods and from private to open source knowledge products and services; growth in recycling and zero-waste processes; and a shift from profit-driven business to entrepreneurship that seeks to satisfy social needs and build local capital.
